The World Bank has revised its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine for 2026.

According to a report by Interfax-Ukraine, the World Bank has changed its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth for 2026.

The assessment of economic growth rates in January 2025 remains unchanged - a decrease to 2% is expected (compared to 2.9% in 2024). However, the bank has revised its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2026 - now 5.2% is expected instead of the previously predicted 7%.

'It is expected that growth in Ukraine will slow to 2% this year before recovering to 5.2% in 2026, if hostilities cease and reconstruction begins,' is recorded in the document.

The World Bank also noted that against the backdrop of the ongoing war, growth in Ukraine last year decreased to 2.9% from 5.5% in 2023.

'A decline in external demand, labor shortages, and energy supply issues due to hostilities were the main factors for the slowdown in growth,' the bank explained.

The National Bank also projects future GDP and inflation. 

Analysis:

According to the World Bank report, the GDP growth forecast for Ukraine for 2026 has been downgraded. As indicated, the presented forecast takes into account the cessation of hostilities and the start of reconstruction. Thus, a decrease in growth to 2% this year is expected, followed by a recovery to 5.2% in 2026.

The World Bank emphasizes that the reasons for the slowdown in growth are the decline in external demand, labor shortages, and energy supply issues due to the war. However, considering the ongoing hostilities, previous growth figures have changed from 5.5% in 2023 to 2.9% last year.

This report is important for the economic situation in Ukraine and for planning further steps in economic recovery. The downgrade of the GDP forecast for Ukraine for 2026 may necessitate the revision of strategies and the adoption of additional measures to ensure stable growth and recovery after the war.